Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rebounds Above 50%
Bitcoin supply in profit has rebounded above the 50% mark, with 57.5% of Bitcoin supply now in profit, up from 46.2% on June 30. This rebound may signal a potential recovery in the Bitcoin market, but previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements, according to CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN.
Live market snapshot (at publish): BTC $65,069 (-0.8% 24h) · ETH $1,886.33 (-2.0% 24h)
The current rebound is not the first of its kind: from April 28 to June 1, the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, and supply in profit reached 67%, but both rolled back over.
"previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements." — thechessONCHAIN, CryptoQuant contributor This previous failed attempt suggests that the current recovery may also be short-lived.
Onchain data indicates a lack of conviction among long-term holders, with the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR below 1 for 50 days. ThechessONCHAIN notes that "this cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over."
Analysis: To be sustained, the current rebound in Bitcoin supply in profit must break above the 60% level, which has historically marked the end of bear markets. The LTH-SOPR must also hold above 1.0 for an extended period, potentially 64% or higher, to confirm a bullish trend. If the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR fails to hold above 1.0, it could signal a roll back over in the recovery.
The forward-looking outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, with the recovery potentially rolling back over. Traders and investors should closely watch the Bitcoin supply in profit and LTH-SOPR metrics, as well as other onchain indicators. A key level to watch is the $23,000 support level, which has held firm in recent weeks. If this level is broken, it could signal a further downturn in the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the current percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit?
- 57.5% of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit.
- What are the requirements for a bear market to end?
- Previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements.
- How long has the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR been below 1?
- The 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for 50 days.