Goldman Sachs Predicts Brent Oil May Near $120 by Q4

July 21, 2026 · Macro · CryptoRefuge

TITLE: Goldman Sachs Predicts Brent Oil May Near $120 by Q4

Brent oil may near its $120 war-era peak by Q4, according to Goldman Sachs, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and a decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels. These factors have pushed oil prices back up, with Brent oil price reaching $126.41 at its peak. The forecast is a direct result of the current geopolitical climate and its impact on global oil supply.

$120 Brent oil price forecast by Q4, according to Goldman Sachs 45% decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows from pre-war levels 0.9% probability of WTI reaching $120

Daan Struyven, analysts led by at Goldman Sachs, noted that "Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up." The decline in Persian Gulf oil flows reduces global oil supply, putting upward pressure on prices, while ongoing tensions in the Middle East create uncertainty and drive prices higher.

Analysis: If current trends continue, with Middle East tensions escalating and Persian Gulf oil flows declining, oil prices will likely remain high. The forecasted Brent oil price of $120 by Q4 is a significant milestone. A low probability of WTI reaching $120, at 0.9%, underscores the uncertainty surrounding the forecast. Investors and traders will closely monitor the oil market for signs of volatility or changes in the forecast.

The Q4 Brent oil price will be a key indicator of the accuracy of Goldman Sachs' forecast, with significant implications for the global oil market. Investors and traders will watch this closely, as the forward-looking close will determine the forecast's validity.